Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0

Author-Name: Rui Alleyne
Author-Name-First: Rui
Author-Name-Last: Alleyne
Author-Email: ralleyne@ucab.edu.ve
Author-Workplace-Name: Universidad Católica Andrés Bello

Author-Name: Jose Morales-Arilla
Author-Name-First: Jose
Author-Name-Last: Morales-Arilla
Author-Email: josemoralesarilla@tec.mx
Author-Workplace-Name: School of Government and Public Transformation, Tecnológico de Monterrey

Title: Effective Threat, Ineffective Action: The Narrow Influence of the ICC on State Killings in Venezuela

Abstract: The study assesses whether International Criminal Court actions deter state violence in Venezuela. Using a regression discontinuity design with state-perpetrated killings data from 2016 to 2024, it finds that the 2018 referral significantly reduced killings by nationally commanded security forces, but the 2020 prosecutorial determination had no comparable effect. Deterrence appears to operate when prosecution can still be avoided through moderation.
Length: 14 pages
Creation-Date: 2026-08
Number: 40

File-URL: https://egobiernoytp.tec.mx/sites/default/files/2026-08/Effective_Threat_Ineffective_Action.pdf 
File-Format: Application/pdf
File-Function: First version, 2026

Keywords: Corte Penal Internacional, violencia estatal, disuasión, derechos humanos, Venezuela.

Handle: RePEc:gnt:wpaper:40